The current crisis has been brewing for months, fuelled by Mnangagwa’s perceived ambition to extend his rule beyond the constitutional two-term limit. The “2030 agenda,” championed by some of his supporters, has sparked outrage and division within ZANU-PF, pitting those loyal to the President against those who believe it is time for a change in leadership.
Adding fuel to the fire, the influential Roman Catholic bishops have become involved, despite a recent assurance from Mnangagwa that he did intend to step down in three years.
The president has long faced criticism from Zimbabweans, but dissent within his ZANU-PF party is rare, and public calls for demonstrations against him are unprecedented. On Monday, demonstrators took to the streets in protests called by a top ZANU-PF member.
At the heart of the challenge to Mnangagwa’s authority is Blessed Geza, a liberation war veteran and senior ZANU-PF member who has emerged as a vocal critic of the President. Geza, also known as “Bombshell,” has accused the government of widespread corruption and called on Zimbabweans to protest against Mnangagwa’s continued rule.
In one video published on social media, he regretted supporting the president’s rise to power.
“I must apologise for helping him come into office,” said Geza in one press conference aired on social media about the president, who goes by the nickname “The Crocodile”.
“As soon as he [Mnangagwa] had the taste of power, he escalated corruption, forgot the people and only remembered his family,” said the outspoken war veteran, who was then a member of Zanu-PF’s powerful central committee.
“Mnangagwa has also surrendered state power to his wife and children. We sadly see history repeating itself. We can’t allow that to happen.”
Geza’s accusations strike at the heart of concerns about corruption and the concentration of power within the Mnangagwa family. He claims that the President has “surrendered” power to his wife, First Lady Auxillia Mnangagwa, and their children, alleging that they wield significant influence behind the scenes in the push for a third term.
First Lady Auxillia Mnangagwa, alongside her husband and several other government officials, were sanctioned by the United States in March 2024 for alleged involvement in illicit diamond and gold networks. In 2023, an Al Jazeera investigation revealed that Zimbabwean officials were using smuggling gangs to sell the country’s gold to soften the impact of sanctions.
Adding to the sense of political turmoil, Mnangagwa has recently shuffled the country’s national security leadership. General Anselem Sanyatwe, commander of the presidential guard, was fired last week. Earlier, Godwin Matanga, chief of police, and Isaac Moyo, head of the intelligence service, were dismissed. These moves have been interpreted by some as an attempt by Mnangagwa to consolidate his power and prevent a potential coup.
The current crisis unfolds against a backdrop of economic hardship and political stagnation in Zimbabwe. Hyperinflation over the past two decades has decimated the economy, wiping out the savings of ordinary citizens. The country has for decades been mired in political crises that have led to economic stagnation, a dearth of jobs, and general government dysfunction.
“Zimbabweans are tired and need a messiah,” Blessing Vava, director of human rights group Crisis Zimbabwe, told Al Jazeera.
The internal split within the ruling ZANU-PF party, which has held power since Zimbabwe’s independence in 1980, is driving the current crisis.
Mnangagwa came to power in 2017 amid promises of democratic and economic reforms. However, critics say corruption levels have remained high, the opposition has been targeted, and the economy has continued to slide.
Zimbabwe’s constitution has a two-term limit for presidents. Mnangagwa is currently in his second elected term, which ends in 2028 when elections are due.
However, some members of the ZANU-PF party have been chanting a “2030 agenda” since last year, saying the president should stay in power for a third term to continue his reforms, although that would violate the constitution.
At a conference in December, the party officially adopted a motion to extend Mnangagwa’s rule till 2030. That’s subject to the approval of the Senate and a national referendum, but the motion has prompted nationwide debate and controversy.
Geza’s critics point out that he, too, is part of the establishment that has long controlled Zimbabwe. Analyst Takura Zhangazha told Al Jazeera that Geza’s opposition is gaining broader traction only because it comes at a time when the country’s national economy is also struggling – which Zimbabweans blame on the ruling government. Any support that Geza’s calls for Mnangagwa to resign gets is not because people believe he will fight for them, he added.
“Mr Geza is representative of [the government] in the public eye,” Zhangazha said. “So he does not have an organic or popular authenticity.”
In recent weeks, Geza had called for mass demonstrations this week against President Mnangagwa. By Friday, security officials had poured onto the streets, conducting stop-and-search on vehicles in the capital, Harare.
“Zimbabweans feel cheated, and they don’t want to be used again,” Vava said. “But the shutdown was also a success. By choosing to stay at home, what we saw was also Zimbabweans demonstrating, saying that we don’t want to be dragged into your internal battles.”
State-owned newspapers, such as the Zimbabwe Herald, reported that the protests were a “failure”. Reacting to the low numbers, ruling Party Zanu PF’s director of communications, Farai Muroiwa Marapira said in a post on X that the demonstrators were “put to shame”.
The current crisis is evoking memories of the fall of the late Robert Mugabe, who held onto power for 37 years before being deposed in a coup in 2017.
On November 6, 2017, Mugabe dismissed Mnangagwa, triggering the beginning of his downfall. A week later, the armed forces seized control, and Mnangagwa took power.
Now, the president, too, appears caught in the same spiral. Although he had once promised to hand over power to Vice President Chiwenga, who was a major player in the Mugabe coup, Mnangagwa has since changed his tune, analysts say.
Mnangagwa is unlikely to be successful in prolonging his rule because of a citizenry fed up with political machinations and because of the deep internal splits in ZANU-PF, Vava told Al Jazeera.
“People don’t want the 2030 agenda,” he said. “It will be a battle for survival for Mnangagwa.”