Harare – President Emmerson Mnangagwa is reportedly contemplating declaring a state of emergency ahead of planned nationwide protests on March 31st, orchestrated by military-backed war veterans led by Blessed Geza, aiming to remove him from power, according to security sources who spoke to The NewsHawks.
This drastic measure is being considered amidst rising tensions within the ruling ZANU-PF party, growing dissent over Mnangagwa’s alleged ambition to extend his rule beyond the constitutional two-term limit, and fears of a potential coup led by his ambitious Vice-President, Constantino Chiwenga.
The contemplation of a state of emergency follows a series of ominous incidents, including the burning of cars in front of Mnangagwa’s business allies’ premises in Harare and surrounding areas. These acts are widely interpreted as a warning sign of potential unrest and a direct challenge to Mnangagwa’s authority. The war veterans, who are spearheading the planned protests, accuse these businessmen of bankrolling Mnangagwa’s alleged 2030 campaign, designed to circumvent the constitution and allow him to remain in power beyond his second term.
The potential declaration of a state of emergency also comes on the heels of Mnangagwa’s recent dismissal of Zimbabwe National Army commander Lieutenant-General Anselem Sanyatwe, a move widely seen as a daring coup-proofing strategy. Sanyatwe, who is believed to be a Chiwenga loyalist, has been demoted to the position of Sports minister, a move perceived as a significant demotion and a clear signal of Mnangagwa’s distrust.
In a strategic move to consolidate his control over the military, Mnangagwa has appointed Major-General Emmanuel Matatu, who hails from Gokwe, Midlands province, to replace Sanyatwe as the commander of the Zimbabwe National Army. However, at 72-years-old and past retirement age, Matatu is not seen as a longterm appointment. Instead, his promotion is viewed as a calculated manoeuvre by Mnangagwa to ensure loyalty within the military ranks amid growing fears of a potential coup.
With the planned protests looming, police have deployed its forces across the country to block or break the demonstrations. However, the army’s conspicuous silence, except for a warning to civilians not to wear its regalia, has raised eyebrows. Under such circumstances, the military would usually have made its presence felt, further fuelling speculation about its allegiances and the potential for a military intervention.
A state of emergency and curfew are measures that governments can take to maintain public order and safety in times of crisis. It is a situation in which a government suspends normal constitutional procedures to respond to a perceived crisis, including civil or political unrest. The state of emergency might be accompanied by a curfew, which is a restriction on movement during specific hours of the day or night, implemented to maintain public order, prevent chaos, or respond to a crisis. However, Zimbabwe has a history of serious human rights abuses under the guise of a state of emergency, raising concerns about the potential for further violations if Mnangagwa decides to invoke this measure.
Political analyst Eldred Masunungure told the privately owned Newsday newspaper that Mnangagwa appeared to be “protecting himself against a potential coup.” The anti-Mnangagwa war veterans, who are planning the March 31st protests, want to replace him with Constantino Chiwenga, a retired general who led the coup against Mugabe and is now the country’s vice president. Although diminishing in number and advancing in age, the independence war veterans remain influential in Zimbabwe’s politics and retain strong ties with its security chiefs, after fighting alongside them during the liberation struggle.
In his previous role as head of the presidential guard under Mugabe, Sanyatwe played a key role in the 2017 coup. He also oversaw the deployment of soldiers who shot dead six people and injured many others during post-election unrest in August 2018, further tarnishing his reputation and raising concerns about his suitability for a leadership position.
Mnangagwa’s evident intention to remain in power after his second term ends in 2028 has fuelled criticism not just from the political opposition and civil society, but even the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF) party. Zimbabwe’s constitution explicitly prohibits serving more than two terms, but there are suspicions that Mnangagwa intends somehow to circumvent that provision. This has created deep divisions within the party, with Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga reportedly against the move. He has been waiting to be passed the baton — which Mnangagwa supposedly promised him — when together they ousted former president Robert Mugabe in November 2017 in a military takeover.
Geza has gone into hiding, fearing retribution for his vocal opposition to Mnangagwa, and the government is cracking down on anyone transmitting his calls. Alpha Media Holdings (AMH) journalist Blessed Mhlanga was arrested after he broadcast Geza’s interviews on AMH’s Heart and Soul TV. He has been denied bail twice, raising concerns about freedom of the press and the government’s intolerance of dissent. Others have gone into hiding, fearing persecution for their association with Geza and the planned protests.
This clampdown has provoked widespread criticism in and beyond Zimbabwe. Idriss Ali Nassah, a senior Human Rights Watch Africa researcher, demanded the immediate release and withdrawal of charges against Mhlanga, which showed the “rights to freedom of expression and the media are under serious threat in Zimbabwe.” The arrest of Mhlanga and the crackdown on dissent have raised concerns about the erosion of democratic principles and the increasing authoritarianism of the Mnangagwa regime.
While Mnangagwa insists he is a constitutionalist and will step down in 2028, few believe him because he has done nothing to cancel Resolution 1. Stepping down would also mean abandoning the vast wealth he and his faction in Zanu-PF have accumulated over the years, largely through graft, further incentivizing him to remain in power.
This is perhaps the key grievance of his enemies. In a broadcast from a hidden location on Wednesday, Geza listed alleged Mnangagwa business cronies who he said had grown fat on corrupt government contracts, highlighting the deep-seated resentment over corruption and economic inequality.
However, how Mnangagwa would remain in office constitutionally is unclear. An anonymous senior opposition leader, also one of the constitution’s architects, told ISS Today that three safeguards in the constitution prevented anyone from seeking a third term. These include that: no one should serve more than two terms; constitutional amendments require approval by a national referendum; and no incumbent can benefit from a constitutional amendment.
So the legal obstacles to Mnangagwa seeking a third term were considerable, he said. As are the political obstacles — and especially that the necessary referendum would probably turn into a referendum on Mnangagwa’s rule. Considering the broad unhappiness with him, that would be a hard vote to win.
The opposition leader thought Mnangagwa’s strategy would simply be to extend his term and those of current parliamentarians. This would still require amending the constitution, but he suspected Mnangagwa’s faction believed they could pass an amendment without a referendum.
It’s hard to assess how serious these rumblings are, if there will be a 31 March uprising, and whether that might unseat Mnangagwa. The political landscape in Zimbabwe is fluid and unpredictable, making it difficult to gauge the true extent of the opposition to Mnangagwa’s rule and the likelihood of a successful uprising.
Ibbo Mandaza, the director of Zimbabwe’s Sapes Trust, told ISS Today: “I don’t know whether it’s a coup in the making, but all indications are that the centre can no longer hold.” The growing tensions within the ruling party, the military, and the security establishment suggest that Mnangagwa’s grip on power is increasingly precarious.
Brian Raftopoulos, a Zimbabwe and democracy expert at the University of Cape Town’s Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, believes there is “real danger” of an upheaval. He says Chiwenga’s resentment about Mnangagwa’s broken promise to step down in 2028 is creating divisions in Zanu-PF, the military and the security establishment. But he doesn’t foresee the “kind of massive support on the streets they had in 2017.” The economic hardships and political repression under Mnangagwa’s rule have eroded public trust and support for the government, making it unlikely that a mass uprising would occur.
David Moore, retired professor of development studies at the University of Johannesburg, agreed, saying: “I would be surprised if a lot of people participated.” He doubted that the main opposition party — the greatly weakened Citizens Coalition for Change — would join in, as that would show they had “given up on rallying the masses, choosing instead to ally with a faction of the ruling party and the military, thus perhaps verifying what some observers already think.” The divisions within the opposition and the lack of a unified front against Mnangagwa’s rule further complicate the political landscape and reduce the likelihood of a successful uprising.
Raftopoulos added that civil society was also weak. He said that even if there were violent protests within Zanu-PF, “Mnangagwa is going to keep this under control.” For example, he noted how Mnangagwa shifted Zimbabwe National Army Lieutenant-General Anselem Sanyatwe (believed to be a Chiwenga supporter) to Minister of Sport, Recreation and Culture — perceived as a huge demotion.
“And, he will continue to move people he feels that he can’t trust. The long run for him is either to contain Chiwenga as much as possible, or push him out and isolate him.” There would be disturbances and unrest, maybe even an attempt to oust Mnangagwa. “But whether it will be a full-blown coup attempt, I have my doubts.” The political situation in Zimbabwe remains highly volatile, with the potential for further unrest and instability.
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