President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s recent cabinet reshuffle, culminating in the abrupt removal of the Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) director-general, Isaac Moyo, and the forced retirement of Police Commissioner-General Godwin Matanga, has ignited intense speculation regarding a power realignment within the ruling Zanu-PF party.
These moves, announced with minimal explanation by Chief Secretary to the President and Cabinet, Martin Rushwaya, have left many questioning the President’s motives.
This interpretation is fuelled by the ongoing campaign amongst Mnangagwa’s loyalists to scrap presidential term limits, a move opposed by those who see it as an attempt to pre-empt a potential succession by Vice President Constantino Chiwenga.
Mziwandile Ndlovu, a research and policy analyst at the African Institute for Development Policy, highlighted the unusual nature of Moyo’s dismissal, stating, “The firing of Isaac Moyo without notice is definitely indicative of problems at the top.”
Ndlovu further suggested that both Moyo and Matanga were perceived as loyalists to Chiwenga. He added, “In African politics, such moves of shuffling security sector chiefs are common with heads of state trying to consolidate their hold on power.”
The support for Mnangagwa’s continued rule beyond 2028 is concentrated in the Midlands and Masvingo provinces, regions where the President enjoys strong political connections. This regional concentration of support is significant, given the recent appointment of one of Mnangagwa’s key allies, Lovemore Matuke, as State Security minister, placing a loyalist in direct oversight of the CIO.
Adding to the intrigue, prominent academic Ibbo Mandaza observed that the removal of Moyo and Matanga was, in his view, foreseeable. Mandaza commented, “The removal of Isaac Moyo has been on the cards for a long time and the changes at the police and the CIO, again, that was predictable and many will add to it. It was a question of announcing it. Matanga was always on the way out from what I picked. The question was when Mnangagwa will have his homeboy in place. Okay, so he’s putting his homeboy. It’s difficult not to conclude that it’s all about a homeboy affair.”
Mandaza’s assessment underscores a perception of the reshuffle as a move driven by personal loyalty rather than meritocratic considerations.
Political analyst McDonald Lewanika offered a different perspective, suggesting that the changes were intended to maintain stability within Zanu-PF amidst internal power struggles.
Lewanika stated, “It bears reminding that ministerial positions are political appointments and the appointees serve at the pleasure of the president. There is very little evidence of technical and specific competences associated with this switch and indeed with the majority of the president’s Cabinet.”
He further argued that the absence of dismissals from cabinet indicated an attempt to avoid escalating tensions surrounding the 2028 succession. Lewanika concluded, “One would assume that the fact that there have been no exits is an attempt to hold steady, retain faith in his team for now.”
However, Bulawayo-based political analyst Effie Ncube voiced concern that the shake-up could exacerbate factionalism within Zanu-PF. Ncube warned, “You want competent people who can turn things around, but you also want to ensure that you do not destabilise the system by alienating the politically powerful ones. The biggest question is whether he can still get competent people from senior politicians of the party. Increasingly, this might be a challenge, something which may push him more and more to younger fellows and unavoidably ruffle some feathers.”
This recent reshuffle follows a pattern established by President Mnangagwa since his ascension to power in 2017. The 2017 military intervention that led to the departure of Robert Mugabe saw a subsequent wave of retirements among senior police officers, including Deputy Commissioner-Generals Innocent Matibiri, Levi Sibanda, and Josephine Shambare. These actions were part of a broader restructuring of the security apparatus, aimed at consolidating power and establishing loyalty within the security forces.
The timing of these recent changes, with President Mnangagwa currently on annual leave and Vice President Kembo Mohadi acting as president, adds another layer of complexity. The lack of transparency surrounding the reasons for the dismissals fuels speculation and raises questions about the underlying political dynamics at play. The replacement of Matanga with Stephen Mutamba, and Moyo with Fulton Mangwanya, further underscores the significant shift in power dynamics within Zimbabwe’s security apparatus. The long-term consequences of these changes remain to be seen, but their immediate impact is a palpable sense of uncertainty and heightened political tension.
