A simmering power struggle within Zanu-PF, Zimbabwe’s ruling party, is reaching a boiling point as the party’s annual conference in Bulawayo looms. At the heart of the turmoil is a controversial plot by President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s loyalists to amend the constitution and extend his term beyond 2028, the year his current term expires according to the existing constitutional framework.
This ambition, known as the “2030 agenda,” is causing deep divisions within the party, exposing existing factionalism and raising questions about the future of Zimbabwean politics.
The party is deeply fractured, with internal strife evident even before the conference. Party insiders report significant problems repeatedly arising during the recent cell restructuring exercise, highlighting the underlying tensions and disagreements. While Mnangagwa has publicly stated his intention to retire in 2028 as stipulated by the constitution, his loyalists continue to actively promote the 2030 agenda, seeking to circumvent the constitutional limitations on presidential terms.
This push for a constitutional amendment has found support primarily within the Zanu-PF youth and women’s leagues. However, it lacks backing from key groups such as the army and war veterans, creating a stark division within the party’s power structure. Sources within the party reveal that the youth league is being actively mobilised to formally propose the constitutional amendment, with Zanu-PF deputy youth secretary, John Paradza, playing a prominent role.
“He has been criss-crossing the country pushing the 2030 agenda, promising empowerment in return for supporting the constitutional amendment,” revealed a party member, shedding light on the tactics employed to garner support for the controversial plan. This assertion is further supported by a recent meeting of Zanu-PF youths at the Dadaya youth training camp in Zvishavane, where they pledged support for the 2030 agenda and received empowerment starter packs.
However, Paradza denies any political motivation behind the meeting, claiming it was solely a youth empowerment initiative organised by the Youth Empowerment ministry. Minister Tinoda Machakaire corroborated this, emphasising the meeting’s focus on youth empowerment and unity within the Zanu-PF family. “We gathered there to empower the youth from across the country, giving them starter packs to start businesses in various fields,” Machakaire stated. “My message to the youth was that they need to be disciplined, and be united as the Zanu PF family.”
Despite these denials, the timing of the meeting, days before the annual conference, has raised eyebrows among observers. Adding to the complexity, a shadowy Zanu-PF group, the General Chiwenga Voluntary Supporters Association, which claims to represent military veterans, women’s associations, and youth associations, has publicly criticised Paradza, accusing him of orchestrating the Dadaya meeting and promoting an “ill-conceived gathering.”
“Their arrogant declaration that President Mnangagwa will remain in power until 2030 is not only a blatant affront to the democratic processes within our nation, but also a direct attack on the legitimacy and standing of (Vice President) General Chiwenga,” the group stated in a strongly worded statement. “Paradza and his Dadaya faction represent a minority desperate to cling to power through undemocratic means, and their confrontational rhetoric is nothing more than an act of cowardice.”
The 2030 campaign is widely seen as an attempt to sideline Vice President Constantino Chiwenga in the succession race, a view reinforced by Chiwenga’s conspicuous absence from any public pronouncements supporting the 2030 slogan. The Zanu-PF youth league’s historical role in shaping the party’s agenda is significant, recalling their pivotal role in supporting Robert Mugabe’s continued rule despite his declining health.
Adding another layer of complexity, Midlands and Masvingo provincial structures are reportedly planning protests against a known critic of President Mnangagwa, suspended Children of War Veterans Association of Zimbabwe (COZWA) leader Munyaradzi Shoko, for his outspoken opposition to the 2030 agenda.
A Zanu PF member in Midlands, Chaplain Chirume, confirmed these plans, stating, “We are against those attacking our party and our President. Our leader is President Emmerson Mnangagwa until 2030, that is when we are going to start to talk about succession…”
Meanwhile, President Mnangagwa’s recent cabinet reshuffle, swapping Frederick Shava from Foreign Affairs to Education, has fuelled speculation about a “Plan B” should his third-term bid fail.
Award-winning investigative journalist Hopewell Chin’ono, in a Facebook post, suggested that this move is part of Mnangagwa’s strategy to prepare Shava for a potential leadership role if the 2030 agenda fails.
“Many people have been asking me why the Zimbabwean tyrant, Emmerson Mnangagwa, swapped Frederick Shava with Amon Murwira, moving Shava from Foreign Affairs to Education. I didn’t know either, but after some investigation, the common thread emerging is that Mnangagwa is preparing for the possibility that, if he doesn’t secure a third term, he would prefer someone other than his Vice President to take over, just as Robert Mugabe was prepared to have someone other than his deputy, Mnangagwa, succeed him.
“The idea behind moving Shava from Foreign Affairs, which requires extensive travel, is so that he can focus on domestic issues in preparation for that potential bid, should Mnangagwa’s third term bid fail. Mnangagwa and Shava are the only cabinet ministers from the 1980s still active in politics today and in cabinet. Shava carries the baggage of the Willowvale scandal, but that pales in comparison to the deep corruption in Zimbabwe today.
“The Willowvale scandal, also known as the Willowgate scandal, was a significant event in Zimbabwe’s political history that occurred in the late 1980s. It involved high ranking government officials, including Frederick Shava who was a minister, who were implicated in corrupt activities related to the illegal resale of vehicles. The scandal resulted in the resignations of five members of President Robert Mugabe’s cabinet, one of them, Maurice Nyagumbo, committed suicide,” Chin’ono wrote.
This highlights the intense pressure and uncertainty surrounding the succession battle within Zanu-PF. The upcoming conference promises to be a pivotal moment, potentially shaping the political landscape of Zimbabwe for years to come.
Zanu PF director of information, Farai Marapira, while acknowledging the ongoing discussions within provincial structures, remained non-committal regarding the 2030 agenda, stating that
“It’s the right of every party member to have an opinion, that’s the vibrancy of democracy, that’s the whole issue about democracy, that’s the vibrancy of Zanu PF, democracy alive in Zanu PF,” he said.
Another senior party member predicted the usual rhetoric surrounding the 2030 agenda, suggesting that open challenges to Mnangagwa or his policies are unlikely given the distance to the next elective congress. “If anyone dares to spring any surprises, they are likely to be sabotaged and neutralised before we get to 2027,” the member warned.
