President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s ambitions for a third term in office, despite his repeated public denials, have suffered a significant setback.
A new Afrobarometer survey reveals that a resounding 79% of Zimbabweans support the constitutional provision limiting presidents to two five-year terms. This strong opposition to amending the constitution to allow Mnangagwa to remain in power beyond 2028 directly contradicts the actions of a faction within the ruling Zanu-PF party actively working to extend his rule.
The Afrobarometer survey, conducted by the Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI) between June 1st and 15th, involved face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adult Zimbabwean citizens. The results paint a stark picture of public sentiment: eight in ten Zimbabweans favour maintaining the existing two-term limit. This widespread support transcends demographic divides, encompassing urban and rural populations, and all age groups. The survey starkly contrasts with the efforts of a faction within Zanu-PF pushing for Mnangagwa’s continued leadership.
Support for term limits is particularly strong among urban residents (85%), while rural areas show a slightly lower, but still significant, 74% approval rating. The survey also reveals a correlation between education level and support for term limits, rising from 69% among those with primary schooling to a remarkable 87% among those with tertiary education.
Men (81%) are slightly more likely to support term limits than women (76%). Crucially, only 20% of respondents supported scrapping term limits, highlighting the depth of public opposition to any attempt to extend Mnangagwa’s presidency. A mere 1% of respondents either didn’t know or refused to answer.
“A large majority of Zimbabweans say they prefer the present constitutional arrangement that limits the president to a maximum of two terms in office,” Afrobarometer stated in its report.
The findings directly challenge the actions of a powerful faction within Zanu-PF, actively campaigning for constitutional amendments to allow Mnangagwa to run again in 2028. This campaign, despite Mnangagwa’s public pronouncements to the contrary, has sparked widespread criticism and concern about its implications for Zimbabwe’s democracy.
President Mnangagwa has, on three separate occasions, publicly declared his intention to step down at the end of his second term in 2028. However, sources within Zanu-PF paint a different picture. They reveal that while Mnangagwa publicly maintains his commitment to leaving office in 2028, members of his faction are actively pushing for a constitutional amendment to extend his rule.
The push for Mnangagwa to remain in power beyond his second term has originated from within Zanu-PF’s provincial structures, highlighting the internal power dynamics within the party. This move, despite Mnangagwa’s repeated public denials, has created considerable anxiety within the political establishment. Sources within the party confirm the ongoing efforts to secure Mnangagwa’s continued leadership.
“Party insiders are adamant that Mnangagwa remains the cornerstone of our strategy moving forward. We are actively working on solidifying his position and ensuring a continued leadership role, both within Zanu PF and on the national level,” one source revealed.
Another source added: “So we are going to have the conference [this October] with all the resolutions. The resolutions will be tabled at the conference and the President will just be a participant.”
These internal party machinations have sparked intense debate, with political analysts warning that they undermine the constitution and set a dangerous precedent. Zanu-PF’s Harare provincial chairperson, Godwills Masimirembwa, recently indicated that the push to amend the constitution would be discussed at the party’s annual people’s conference in Bulawayo this month, suggesting a potential two-year extension of Mnangagwa’s term, pushing his rule to 2030.
However, this ambition faces a significant hurdle: the Zimbabwean military. Despite Mnangagwa’s public commitment to constitutionalism, the military, a powerful force in Zimbabwean politics, appears firmly opposed to any attempt to extend his presidency. This stance is particularly noteworthy given the military’s pivotal role in the 2017 coup that brought Mnangagwa to power.
A military insider, speaking on condition of anonymity, stated: “The army’s stance is unequivocal. The President is required to complete his constitutional second term and retire in 2028. From a military perspective, he should not have even been eligible for a second term. Although he publicly agrees to retire in 2028, he is privately signaling his supporters to push for a constitutional amendment to extend his term until 2030. This proposal is unpopular among the security forces and the general public, with only a few self-interested individuals supporting it.”
The military’s position adds another layer of complexity to the already tense political situation, particularly given the ongoing power struggle within Zanu-PF. The battle for control over state resources and political influence is intensifying, with the military’s opposition to a third term for Mnangagwa significantly impacting the political landscape.
The Afrobarometer survey results, indicating overwhelming public support for maintaining the two-term limit, add another dimension to this complex political scenario. The survey’s findings suggest that any attempt to amend the constitution to allow Mnangagwa a third term would likely face significant public resistance, potentially leading to further instability.
The Citizens for Coalition Change (CCC) party, a key opposition force, has also vowed to launch an anti-Constitution amendment campaign to thwart the move.
“We are totally opposed to the amendment of the Constitution. It is undemocratic and against the spirit of constitutionalism. In any event, any amendment to the Constitution will require a referendum and the citizens are ready to embarrass them,” said CCC spokesperson Promise Mkwananzi.
