A political tremor has reverberated through Zimbabwe’s ruling Zanu-PF party, triggered by President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s cryptic pronouncements regarding his future. While the 82-year-old leader has declared his intention to retire at the end of his second term in 2028, the air is thick with speculation and a palpable sense of unease.
President Mnangagwa has maintained that he does not wish to extend his rule and that he will respect the constitution which does not allow him to rule the Southern-African nation for more than two terms. While several party senior officials have urged him to extend his rule, Mnangagwa himself has consistently maintained that he will go and rest after 2028 when his second term comes to an end.
The President’s statement, initially met with cautious optimism, has ignited a fierce debate within the party, with whispers of a pre-determined power handover to his deputy, Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga, swirling like a dust devil in the political landscape. These rumours, fueled by persistent reports of a secret agreement struck in the aftermath of the 2017 coup, have left many questioning the party’s commitment to democratic principles.
“Everyone who goes into politics, and has an ambition to be a leader must play by the rules, especially of a revolutionary democratic party,” declared Zanu-PF spokesperson Chris Mutsvangwa, attempting to quell the growing unease. However, his pronouncements have done little to soothe the anxieties of those who fear a power grab rather than a democratic transition. Meanwhile, former Norton MP, Sabhuku Temba Mliswa, who is President Mnangagwa’s cousin, is on record saying that Mutsvangwa also harbours presidential aspirations, and this could be confirmed by Mutsvangwa’s consistent criticism of Chiwenga.
The potential for a power struggle is further amplified by the lack of a clear successor. Mnangagwa, despite his long tenure, has not explicitly groomed a replacement, leaving a vacuum that has been eagerly filled by ambitious individuals vying for the top spot.
“Firstly, he might want to save his legacy after having learnt lessons from his predecessor former president Robert Mugabe who overstayed as a dictator and lost all respect when he was forcibly removed through a military coup,” opined Nairobi-based Zimbabwean analyst Tinashe Gumbo. “Secondly, after the 2018 and 2023 elections were contested, Mnangagwa may have assessed his electability and is not prepared to have another contested electoral victory.”
Gumbo further suggests that internal pressure from within ZANU-PF and the military might be driving Mnangagwa’s decision. “Mnangagwa might also be feeling internal pressure within ZANU-PF and the military, and other powerful ZANU-PF individuals that do not want him to serve a third term,” he said.
The military’s influence in Zimbabwean politics cannot be overstated. Gumbo asserts that any aspiring successor must secure the military’s backing, highlighting the institution’s significant power in shaping the nation’s political landscape.
As the race for the Zanu-PF leadership heats up, several potential candidates have emerged from within the party’s ranks. Among them are Deputy Minister of Finance David Mnangagwa, Vice President Constantino Chiwenga, Second Vice President Kembo Mohadi, Obert Mpofu, Oppah Muchinguri, July Moyo, and Jacob Mudenda, The Africa Report has said.
Each of these individuals brings their unique strengths and weaknesses to the table, and their respective bids for power are likely to shape the future of Zimbabwe’s political landscape. As the nation watches and waits, only time will tell who will ultimately emerge as the successor to President Emmerson Mnangagwa.
David Mnangagwa, the president’s son, has been rumoured to be a potential successor due to his impressive educational background and recent exposure in the government as a deputy minister of finance. His youthfulness and appeal to the Zanu-PF youth could also work in his favour, particularly when competing against young opposition presidential candidates like Nelson Chamisa.
However, David’s appointment as deputy minister has been met with criticism, with some accusing the president of nepotism and grooming his son for the presidency.
Vice President Constantino Chiwenga, the architect of the 2017 military coup that brought Mnangagwa to power, was once considered a strong contender for the presidency. However, his chances have been diminished by his deteriorating health and the death of key allies such as former foreign affairs minister Sibusiso Moyo and former air chief marshal Perrance Shiri. Additionally, Mnangagwa has made several changes in the military leadership, further weakening Chiwenga’s position.
Despite these setbacks, Chiwenga remains the second secretary of Zanu-PF, placing him in a prime position to succeed Mnangagwa according to the party’s hierarchy.
Second Vice President Kembo Mohadi, at 74 years old, faces challenges due to his age and frail health. Political analyst Tendai Ruben Mbofana believes that Mohadi lacks the qualities necessary to lead the ruling party, citing instances where he has appeared disoriented and collapsed while addressing the public. Mohadi’s roots in the ZAPU party, which merged with Zanu to form Zanu-PF in 1987, also pose a significant obstacle to his presidential aspirations.
Obert Mpofu, the party’s secretary for administration, has shown ambition for the presidency in the past. However, his chances are slim due to his ZAPU origins and lack of popularity within the party. Mpofu’s attempts to boost his image, such as setting up the publication The Zimbabwe Mail, have done little to improve his standing.
Oppah Muchinguri, the defence minister and Zanu-PF party chairperson, is the only woman among the potential successors. While she holds an influential position within the party, her chances of becoming president are low due to the party’s reluctance to embrace a female leader. Additionally, Muchinguri lacks significant support within the party.
July Moyo, the minister of public service and social welfare, is considered a dark horse in the race for the presidency. If he plays his cards right, Moyo could emerge as a potential successor due to his close relationship with Mnangagwa and his Karanga ethnic background. However, his capabilities as a leader remain uncertain.
Lastly, Jacob Mudenda, the National Assembly speaker, is seen as a capable leader but faces significant hurdles due to his ZAPU roots. Despite his fitness to lead Zimbabwe, Mudenda’s chances of becoming president are slim due to the party’s historical bias against ZAPU members. Mudenda has been the speaker of parliament since September 2013. He is poised to hold the powerful position for three terms since he has already served the first year of the third term, making him the longest serving speaker of parliament in Zimbabwe.
Echoes of the Past:
The current situation bears a striking resemblance to the events leading up to Mugabe’s downfall. As Mugabe clung to power, despite his advanced age and declining health, infighting within ZANU-PF intensified, with factions vying for control. The military, once again, plays a pivotal role, its influence evident in the 2017 coup.
The army’s mission statement, “to defend the sovereignty, territorial integrity and national interests of Zimbabwe and to contribute to international peace and security,” underscores its commitment to maintaining stability.
A Divided Front:
The Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans Association (ZNLWVA), a powerful force in Zimbabwean politics, has further complicated the succession race by openly endorsing Chiwenga as their preferred successor. This endorsement, however, has sparked further divisions within the organization, with another faction led by Zanu-PF spokesperson Chris Mutsvangwa backing a different candidate.
The ZNLWVA’s split reflects the deep divisions within ZANU-PF, highlighting the party’s internal struggles as it navigates the uncertain waters of succession.
The Future Uncertain:
As the countdown to 2028 begins, Zimbabwe’s political landscape remains shrouded in uncertainty. The President’s cryptic pronouncements, the rumours of pre-arranged power transfers, and the ambitions of various contenders have created a volatile cocktail of intrigue and anxiety.
The question of who will succeed Mnangagwa remains unanswered, with the answer likely to be determined by a complex interplay of factors, including the military’s influence, the party’s internal dynamics, and the aspirations of those vying for the top spot.
